Digital Radio -- Is The Battle Over?
Written Mar. 8, 2010 by Larry Rosin in with 6 Comments
I was chatting with a friend in UK radio recently, discussing their efforts on developing digital radio (now in more than 25% of their households, if I remember the number correctly).
So of course I mentioned to him how much trouble Digital Radio has had here in America, and that the most optimistic estimates of HD Radio uptake are about 3% of households.
He nearly blew my mind when he said: "That's not right. Digital Radio is much more developed than that -- you have to include Satellite Radio."
Well, that sent my mind spinning like one of those scenes in a Hitchcock movie. Of course he is right. Satellite Radio is digital radio. Sirius XM claims 18 million or so subscriptions, and our own annual "Internet and Multimedia Study" pegs them as being in about 12% of households.
I have to say, I had never really considered digital radio this way before. And yet, we all know that HD Radio was rolled out as a response to Satellite, and to this day the HD spots used on the radio tout the lack of a subscription.
It is just recently that many in 'radio' were thrilling over Sirius XM's near-bankruptcy -- the schadenfreude was flying.
But with Sirius XM's newfound footing, the question is worth asking...is this battle over, and did Sirius XM win it? Anyone out there want to argue for HD's eventual triumph?
Reader Comments
Your 2¢, in chronological order — add your comment below.
Tom, nice to see you note that Sirius XM has around 18M *subscriptions*, not *subscribers*. Some customers have multiple subscriptions, so the company's claims of 18M (or however many) *subscribers* is false.
First, the broad label "digital radio" is not helpful. If you wish to be broad, the only label that matters is "radio". If narrow, then you can't lump HD, Satellite, DAB, DAB+, DRM and internet all into "digital" and have a meaningful conversation. Some digital formats will do better than others. The details matter.
As for the battle, I'd put HD and DAB as inevitable losers. They tried to force "digital" with no clear consumer benefit. DAB is a failure in the UK, but it is politically impossible to kill it, so it will continue to drain the commercial radio industry until the pain is too great to bear.
Makes me realize your "battle" analogy is a good one. Very easy to start a battle, but very hard to stop. How do HD and DAB gracefully disappear?
Remember AM stereo? It's telling that these technologies--combined-- have not exceed 16% adoption. Europe is interesting but you have to couple their number with events like what's happening with BBC 6. http://bit.ly/aUvjEn
They are both technology bridges to in-car mobile web. When Pandora and Last.fm are in the car it's back to the drawing boards.
Meanwhile the era of advertiser supported content may be drawing to a close. Consumers have demonstrated repeatedly they would rather pay than be interrupted with irrelevancy.
Larry, nice to see you note that Sirius XM has around 18M *subscriptions*, not *subscribers*. Some customers have multiple subscriptions, so the company's claims of 18M (or however many) *subscribers* is false.
I think the industry is kidding with counting "housholds" and giving themselves a pat on the back for getting 25%.
Households have many radios; two cars, lounge, kitchen, kids bedrooms, shed, etc. Putting a digital one in any of those places and calling the household digital sounds absurd to me.
Does PPM or do the old fashioned diaries check what type of radio is listened on? That would make for much more interesting numbers on the uptake of digital.
"Digital Radio is much more developed than that -- you have to include Satellite Radio."
Yeahright. And since both compact discs and iPods are "digital," it's all the same market.
Ask the record industry how that's working out.