Bored With Pandora?
Written Jan. 6, 2010 by Tom Webster in Internet Radio with 12 Comments
Bridge Ratings just released some data relevant to Pandora fans that purports to show evidence that the popular online music service is showing signs of weakness. The study examined Pandora users of various stripes and segmented them by their tenure with the service, as follows:
The study concludes that "over time...the satisfaction level is affected by 'fatigue or boredom'" and that "the longer consumers use Pandora, fatigue and/or tedium sets in as users become accustomed to the programming 'style' of Pandora."
I worry about studies like this, because they tempt the broadcaster to lean back and say "look, see--Pandora's a fad." Nothing could be further from the truth, as Clear Channel, CBS and other webcasters can attest, since Pandora is cleaning their clocks right now online.
First of all, we don't really have a benchmark for these numbers. How would overall satisfaction look for your station over a three year period? Do you think it might show declines as the "halo" effects wear off? Of course it would. The only way these numbers have meaning is if we can see a comparison of "satisfaction over time" between terrestrial radio (or webcasts of terrestrial radio) and Pandora--you might find that Pandora's "eroding" satisfaction levels are actually better than you think. Or not--you can't tell from this data.
But the more sinister bias of this conclusion is that the longer you expose a body of listeners to Pandora, the more "bored" or dissatisfied they are likely to become. Unfortunately, that assumes facts not in evidence with this study. What we do see is that longtime listeners report greater levels of dissatisfaction with the service than do new listeners. Some of that, as noted, is certainly the halo effect of a new service. But it might also be that the people who have been listening to Pandora for three years or more are simply different people than Pandora's newest fans. Early adopters are also early rejecters (I know--I am one!) As Pandora becomes more and more mainstream, it's attracting more middle-of-the-bell-curve listeners, who will accept or reject the service using different criteria than Pandora's early fans. That isn't speculation--we see this very clearly in our tracking of Satellite radio satisfaction over time, and I have little reason to doubt that Pandora's user base is undergoing a similar shift.
There's nothing wrong with asking several hundred Pandora listeners how satisfied they are with the service, and with asking them how long they've been Pandora listeners. Those are perfectly legitimate data points to report. Where studies like this get into trouble, however, is in reporting some kind of longitudinal effect with a one-time data snapshot. The assumption made in this study's conclusion, which I've seen parroted all over the Interwebs, is that the longer you listen to Pandora, the more likely you are to migrate from "highly satisfied" to lower levels of satisfaction. But the only way to really prove that is to ask the same people the same question over time.
Remember--you could just as easily read this data to show that Pandora has recently uncovered new users that love its service even more than its early adopters did.
Reader Comments
Your 2¢, in chronological order — add your comment below.
Tom,
I think the satisfaction over time conclusion is probably significant, and I don't think it would be any different if you added radio station satisfaction levels for comparison. Some go up over time. Some go down. The trend is certainly relevant for each specific situation.
That said, I agree with your conclusion because you nailed the key element with Pandora: It's very new and it's digital. The "early adoptors are early rejectors" is a completely logical scenario. It may not be the case here, but we don't know that yet. As it is, I think I would hold off on the "Pandora will die" post that Richard Harker and some others are probably writing right now.
The fact that Pandora can produce three years of user satisfaction data is a significant fact in and of itself - as most new music offerings have significantly dwindled or disappeared over that timeframe. We are still very early in this game and Pandora is a player.
This Bridge Ratings study coupled with the Kelly Research Study (Extreme/Normal listeners) offers Terrestrial Radio Programmers some real meat to chew on.
The Kelly study on "Normal" and "Extreme" Fans - Active and Passive listening confirms what we've all pretty much known since the 80's: Only a small minority of listeners are "Active/Extreme".
Consumer-Input sites like Pandora (and I'd include YouTube) require a lot of active listening...perhaps more activity than the majority of music audiences can or are willing to give.
To me, both these studies say two things:
1. Mass appeal audiences seem to want the work done for them. "Select the best music and play it for me."
2. Radio--particularly MUSIC Radio--needs to find a way more fully-engage their listeners and dramatically grow that "Extreme/Active" audience beyond the record-setting low of 4% cited in the Kelly project.
I agree with some of that, John, but I would point out that today's version of Pandora can also be a pretty passive experience, if that is what the listener wants. There are pre-packaged genre stations, and new ones can be created with one click, or one entry of text. The interface there has come a long way since the early days and continues to evolve. Also, much of Pandora's recent growth is directly attributable to mobile apps, and again that experience today is pretty seamless.
I agree with Jim. Another point about this information re. Pandora is that they are essentially the entry point to Internet radio so they are getting lots and lots of sampling. Will that convert to loyal listening? Yes, lots of it. But since they are also many people's first encounter with streaming, some people will listen and then move on to explore other stations. Good for Pandora, good for Internet radio. Why would anyone want them to fail?
Not only that, Jennifer, but as much as they are the entry point to Internet radio they are even more the entry point to mobile Internet radio--only AT&T knows for sure, but I suspect the nation's broadband infrastructure is under no small strain because of that!
I find all the reprots and summaries you guys give to be so interesting, but the truth of the matter is, listeners are listeners, and we are all prone to change our attitudes and feelings toward the music at the drop of a hat. As I see it the only thing that speaks to the value of any music service, be it tradtional broadcast or webcast is the quality of the product and nothing more.
I've been associated with the broadcast industry for more than 40 years, I've been through 5 different radio formats and a herd of people both sales and programming who feel they have all figured out, and they know exactly what it is I like and why I like it, but the truth is there are far more of us who are just putting up with what their dishing out than they than want to admit.
I've watched traditional broadcasting change over the last 20 years, and with the way technology is going, and the way we the listening public are taking to it, radio is never going to be what it used to be and Pandora, Last.FM, Napster and all the other music services are soon going to fall to the wayside in favor of some On-Demand service that's on the way.
Radio won't die, but it very well may beed a wheelchair to get around.
Thanks
The one major overlooked factor is that the "personalized experience" that is Pandora's strength is also most likely the source of this fatigue.
Although initially the strength of giving a listener ability to "choose" is positive experience, however, over a long period of time a listener would end up with a particular set of favored artists along with a bunch recommended sound alikes.
This results in an extremely bland listening experience to any long term listener. For an audience to refresh that "new experience", occasionally something completely unexpected needs to be introduced. It's possible for a listener to choose to "create" this new experience by throwing in something completely out of the blue, but the net result is just a jarring experiencing in a familiar environment. To create this new experience, a completely new "packaging" is required.
This is simply the limitation of the personalized experience model where an audience is continually allowed to tailor an experience, you'll eventually end up in a creative dead end.
Tom, thanks for your point of view. I always find your comments and analysis to be of value. And I believe you're correct when you say that a benchmark should sit along side our published numbers to give perspective.
You should understand that this Pandora study, like many of those we publish, are commissioned by clients who allow us to publish only a fraction of the data mined. This proprietary 85% is the real usable meat that our clients can use for their needs.
Thus,the client associated with this Pandora study has more detail into the long-term implications of Pandora use. In fact, when we were reviewing the results of the study with the client, a discussion of "Pandora might be a fad..." revealed that the room agreed that we didn't see it that way, either. The client considers Pandora to be a significant competitor in their space.
Thanks for that Dave--really appreciate the insight and your response. I am, as you could tell from the article, most keen that the rest of the broadcast industry get that message as well. The numbers reported by AndoMedia certainly reflect Pandora's strength--and they don't even include their mobile sessions, which I suspect are staggeringly high. No one--including Pandora--should get too comfy in this space!
Thanks again, Dave.
It wasn't long ago that radio folks were talking about iPod fatigue. I remember the headlines. iPod sold another 30 million units after that story broke.
Pandora will be able to respond to 'fatigue' quickly. Just by offering new 'stations' such as 'your own' Top 40, etc. Maybe they should hire Lee Abrams.
On-demand, customized media is not a fad. It's the future that is already here.
No surprise here. Hedonic adaptation strikes again. I agree with Lex that it kicks in faster the more you tweak your Pandora stations. A friend told me he avoids Pandora because he feels compelled to constantly tweak. Not me. I'd rather endure a few duds to preserve the element of surprise. If I get bored with a station, I just create a new one and delight in it until the novelty wears off.