The Infinite Dial

Yesterday, eMarketer published some projections from ZenithOptimedia on the estimated ad spend for podcasting over the next three years (and, to give away the punchline, the article is entitled "Podcasting Not Too Profitable.") Towards the end of this article, the eminently sensible Paul Verna writes, "much like blogging, podcasting is proving to be profitable to those who have premium content, but less so to everyday citizens who use the medium to reach long-tail audiences."

ZenithOptimedia's figures project that podcasting will continue to remain a very tiny portion of the overall ad spend, despite very positive growth rates. Projections generally describe a possible future--perhaps even a probable future--but not the only future. The key is, what are podcasters going to do to change it? Or, to paraphrase the great philosopher Cameron (you know, the hot Terminator from the Sarah Connor Chronicles,) "Future You doesn't live here. You do." So, here are some things for Present You think about.

Podcasting today generally falls into two camps: independent, niche content designed to monetize the long tail, and mainstream content from mainstream producers. The former is very likely to follow the trail of blogging, just as Verna notes, and certainly some individual content producers will do very well for themselves, while others will struggle--depending on the quality of their content and their marketing prowess. What will change those future projections the most, however, will be the actions that mainstream content producers take to optimize and monetize their downloadable media strategies. If they can right the ship, the rising tide will lift all boats.

The problem with most mainstream podcast content is that it is essentially just repurposed broadcast content--nothing new, nothing more. There is a place for this in a downloadable media platform, sure--but if all you are doing is adding a few more soda machines for the same cans of soda, then you will drive marginal growth, but not the kind of hockey-stick growth that podcasting could potentially realize with a different strategy. In other words, if your podcasts are basically nothing more than a subset of your existing broadcast content, then you'll have to be content with a subset of your existing broadcast pie, when we ought to make the pie higher.

If podcasts are little more than a service of convenience, they are destined to be just value-adds for broadcast or internet ad sales. It's convenient for me to be able to download APM's "Marketplace" to fill in those times when I miss the broadcast, but if the podcast went away I wouldn't miss it--there are other ways to get the content. Downloadable media can be so much more, if the unique attributes of the medium are recognized and form the basis of a cogent, platform-specific strategy. I can sum up the planks for a compelling platform strategy for downloadable media with this easy mnemonic: PODCASTING:

• P: Portable. More than two-thirds of podcast consumers continue to report listening more to podcasts tethered to their computer (where they compete with everything) than they do on portable devices--where new listening opportunities for broadcast content abound. Location-specific, activity-specific and context-specific content opens up all kinds of creative programming and revenue opportunities.
• O: Original. Content that you can't get anywhere else, like the unaired "fourth hour" of your morning show, local music features, or local public affairs programming--basically, anything you can think of that won't fly as broadcast, mass-appeal content that nevertheless has a place with passionate sub-groups of your audience.
• D: Discrete. Think "Song," not necessarily "Show." Bite-sized, easily digestible content chunks allow the podcast listener/viewer to create their own 'playlist' of content. I rarely miss Jon Gordon's "Future Tense" or my friend Chris MacDonald's IndieFeed podcasts because they are both around five minutes long, and I can easily stick them in the same playlist for my morning run.
• C: Compelling. Goes without saying.
• ASTING: I got nothin'. OK, you really only need to tackle the first four.

It also helps to know your audience, and in that regard, we'd like to pitch in.

Next Thursday at 1:00 PM (EDT), I'll be presenting a webinar entitled "The Podcast Consumer Revealed 2009." This is the fourth iteration of this study, which is based upon the Internet and Multimedia Research Series we produce every year with our partners at Arbitron, and we are pleased to present it in conjunction with the Association for Downloadable Media (ADM). The ADM was formed to help podcasters monetize their downloadable content--which is something that I suspect nearly everyone reading this has an interest in--so I would encourage broadcasters of all stripes to join the ADM and support its efforts to help build podcasting's potentially lucrative future. In any case, if you are in the business of creating downloadable media, I urge you to sign up for this free web presentation, which will feature new, unreleased Edison/Arbitron data on the podcast audience.

You can sign up for "The Podcast Consumer Revealed: 2009" here.