The Infinite Dial

One of the central tenets of music programming is that anything softens with time and becomes more palatable as listeners age into an Adult Contemporary or Hot AC demo. But not everything softens (or endures) equally. Consider three late '80s rock records: Bon Jovi's "Living On A Prayer" has made it to some AC stations. Def Leppard's "Love Bites"--softer texturally--got only as far as Hot AC and Adult Hits. Warrant's "I Saw Red" is softer and more melodic than either, but there's not much demand for it now on any format.

So it's not hard to hear Lady Gaga's "Just Dance" on WHTZ (Z100) New York (a frequent occurrence these days) and know that it will make its way to WLTW (Lite FM) at some point -- whether it's a year or 10 years from now. Hearing Lady Gaga's first hits are a lot like hearing Madonna when she was new, with songs like "Holiday," "Borderline," and "Lucky Star" that were considered Urban then, but are Lite FM mainstays now. Same goes for Chris Brown's "Forever" and Ne-Yo's "Closer." They're not on Mainstream AC's radar now, but they're really Lionel Richie songs for our time in a way that will eventually become apparent.

So what are the prospects for the rest of the current Mainstream CHR top 10? Here are some predictions. It's important to note that we're not talking about the current programming value of any song here. "Nobody will be playing that in a year" is usually a pejorative for programmers, but most of these songs will be on CHR in a year. We're talking about their likely spread through other formats. And by the way, these predictions stand even if the listeners (or the robots) are the only ones choosing music in 10 years. Programming may change; the songs people grew up with do not.

1, Beyonce, "Single Ladies (Put A Ring On It)" -- Like a lot of '70s/early '80s disco, it could get to AC one day. Even "You Dropped A Bomb On Me" is on some ACs. And she's already cracked the format with "Irreplaceable."

2. Lady Gaga, "Just Dance" -- Already doesn't seem edgy to a Top 40 listener now after months and months of airplay.

3. Taylor Swift, "Love Story" -- Already there, of course.

4. T.I., "Live Your Life" -- By 2019, they'll probably have worked out this "hip-hop for the AC demo" thing and found a new format to play this as an oldie, but I'm not expecting to hear it on "Tomorrow's Lite FM."

5. Britney Spears, "Womanizer"
6. Britney Spears, "Circus" -- They're both receiving Hot AC airplay, which is a good sign. But AC hasn't yet brought Britney into the fold like they have Christina Aguilera. And, when they do, "Toxic" will likely be first.

7. Kanye West, "Heartless" -- So he's now had two more singing/less rapping hits at Top 40, but "Gold Digger" is more firmly entrenched with adults.

8. Pink, "Sober" -- Depends ultimately on how big a CHR hit it is. But she's already in at AC with "Get The Party Started" and "Who Knew."

9. Jason Mraz, "I'm Yours" -- Also already there; this week's No. 2 AC song.

10. Kevin Rudolph, "Let It Rock" -- "Single Ladies" will get there first, although this one will also be considerably softened by time, arena events, weddings/parties, etc.