The Infinite Dial

It's hard to believe, but it has been two years since I wrote a response to Chris Anderson's "The Long Tail : Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More", and particularly to respond to Anderson's assertion that the the "hit" was dead in the era of long-tail economics. Back then, I maintained that the hit was far from dead--it was just different. Surely in the past two years we have seen not only the Indiana Jones's of the world continue to be hits, but the Halos and the Guitar Heroes become new ones as well.

Now, two years later, we are beginning to see some challenges to Anderson's model. The Washington Post featured an article yesterday entitled "Study Refutes Niche Theory Spawned by Web," which details a Harvard Business School professor's attempt to verify or refute the impact of the "long tail." Professor Anita Elberse discovered that not only are the hits still the hits, but her research suggests that the Internet actually makes them bigger.

To his credit, Anderson praises Elberse's work, and I think the real answer is not that one or the other is right, but that surely the game has changed. The hit is far from dead--but I think the smartest thing we can say is that we have entered the "Post-Hit" era (and not the Anti-Hit era).

The real story of the Long Tail, to steal from Fareed Zakaria's excellent new book, The Post-American World, is not the "fall of the west," but the "rise of the rest." It's not that the hit is dead--far from it. But the non-hit, the long tail propositions, have as much claim to page one of your Google Search results as anything else. The hits now have some increased competition from aggregations of niches and customized, on-demand entertainment like podcasts, but what doesn't kill the hit will only make it stronger. In a post-hit world, would-be blockbusters cannot assume that a mass-media ad blitz will carry the day. As social media tools proliferate, word-of-mouth becomes more important than ever.

All of this means that if you create media that is truly worthy of being a hit, you have more ways than ever to get the word out. But increasingly in the "Post-Hit" world, a Super Bowl ad won't save a piece of crap. As the Internet provides long-tail players the ability to market and distribute content on a wider stage, the "hit" has to work just a little bit harder, and be a little bit better. In a content meritocracy, the consumer wins.