The Sales/Airplay Correlation

Written Jun. 12, 2008 by Sean Ross in Content + Technology with 2 Comments

As the debate over radio's performance rights plays out on Capitol Hill, part of the strategy of the music industry and its congressional advocates is not just trying to sell the fairness of an artist royalty, but also minimizing broadcasters' arguments that radio is still providing significant promotional support for their artists.

And yet, even in a new world where a few records are able to develop some sort of initial buzz without radio, the label strategy is still almost invariably been to take that story to radio, in hopes of making that record even bigger. Radio is what separated Snow Patrol from Moonbabies, Jim Noir, and more than a dozen artists that appeared on the same "Grey's Anatomy, Vol. 2" soundtrack. The non-radio stories generate a week or two of sales, then tend to flicker out unless radio support follows.

So it was instructive to take a look at this week's top selling songs at the iTunes Music Store. In recent years, iTunes has altered the industry's perception of what a hit song is, and has helped create a story for pop/rock records at Top 40 radio. Songs may be incubated in a number of places, but iTunes is where the non-radio stories are most readily apparent.

So let's take the top 15 singles on iTunes from the top. There are no songs selling entirely without airplay, and only a few where it could be said that sales spurred airplay instead of vice-versa:

1 - Coldplay, "Viva La Vida" - Like the handful of Lil Wayne tracks showing sales stories further down the chart, this one got immediate sales by dint of being the second available song from the album of the same name. But it also quickly picked up multi-format airplay and is overtaking first single "Violet Hill" (which quickly reversed on the sales charts once "Vida" became available to consumers and radio).

2 - Katy Perry, "I Kissed A Girl" -- Instant radio hit with sales that clearly responded;

3 - Metro Station, "Shake It" -- Finally went to another level at radio in recent weeks and responded accordingly in sales;

4 - Natasha Bedingfield, "Pocketful Of Sunshine" -- Already receiving some airplay, it was clearly helped by "American Idol," but the radio airplay that spurred has kept it strong after an "Idol" boost would have otherwise tapered off;

5 - Rihanna, "Take A Bow" - Radio hit that was held back from consumers until a month or so of accumulated airplay;

6 - Chris Brown, "Forever" - Initial sales for being a new superstar track, then tapered off until it became a real radio hit;

7 - Jesse McCartney, "Leavin'" -- Instant radio support reinforced by quick sales story;

8 - Leona Lewis, "Bleeding Love" - Radio, foreign and domestic, plus extensive support from TV, press, etc.;

9 - Madonna & Justin Timberlake, "4 Minutes" - Instant radio support on an artist that can't count on it anymore (then a sales story that probably kept it buoyed after the novelty of the superstar duet wore off);

10 - Lil' Wayne, "Lollipop" -- Instant R&B, then pop radio support, but quick sales as well. Hip-Hop's No. 1 artist can certainly put a song on the sales chart ahead of airplay, but the first radio single has had more of a sustained run than the other songs that have preceded "Tha Carter III";

11 - Pussycat Dolls, "When I Grow Up" -- Instant superstar act sales, with the help of some high-impact TV appearances, that preceded being worked to radio by a few days;

12 - Colby O'Donis, "What You Got" - A gradual slow build at radio (No. 13 this week) with sales that now parallel airplay (No. 12 iTunes);

13 - Danity Kane, "Damaged" - Started at radio, has had TV-driven spurts but becoming a real radio hit has sustained it at this level;

14 - Jordin Sparks, "No Air" - The initial headlines, you'll remember, were about how disappointing the album sales were for an American Idol. But "No Air" became a real hit with sustained airplay and sales. Having sustained airplay has clearly quashed any suggestion that she might be less successful than, say, Taylor Hicks (who she has now outsold by 100,000 albums with a third single just getting going at radio);

15 - 3 Doors Down, "It's Not My Time" - Had multi-format airplay right away although sales story is probably giving it the kind of credibility among those Top 40 PDs who have always needed a nudge on pop/rock.

The final count is 13 radio hits and two (Coldplay and PCD) that will likely become so -- no songs that have developed entirely without radio, and no songs where the label has decided not to pursue airplay. It's not a closed ecosystem: TV figures into the story for at least a third of these, but it usually played the role that MTV exposure did a decade ago, helping to further propel songs that were already on the radio.

It's been a while since radio could make any claims about being the only gatekeeper for new music, but however diminished its impact, (and however diminished the value of having a hit), radio still ultimately creates the consensus hits that do exist. You might still believe in an artist royalty, but you can't deny radio its contribution to the industry today.

Reader Comments

Your 2¢, in chronological order — add your comment below.
1  allen butler on June 13, 2008 3:02 PM

Imagine that, you needed research to tell you this?!

2  al mair on June 13, 2008 3:34 PM

Looking only at the Top 20 doesn't tell the whole story. MERLIN, the independent label's collective to collect from digital sellers such as iTunes grabbed 12% of the market in their first quarter in business. That makes the indies collectively bigger than EMI or Warners. None of the top 20 are indies.

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