The Infinite Dial

In 2000, Edison Media Research presented a study entitled “Radio’s Future: Today’s 12-24 Year Olds.” The study was put forth as a cautionary tale, urged broadcasters to take more aggressive steps to fight young-end erosion that was already taking place, and included the following warning: “An industry that fails to cultivate new users will almost certainly erode over time.”

We now follow up that study with a new look at the current 12-24 audience.

Our latest, publicly-available study shows sharp declines in Time Spent Listening (TSL), Persons Using Radio (PUR) and most importantly attitudes about radio among the 12-to-24-age group, the listeners who represent both terrestrial radio's future and its greatest challenge.

The new study will be published in installments beginning today, right here on The Infinite Dial--and you will get to read it first.

Among the findings of the new study:

· TSL among 12-to-17-year-olds is down 22% since 1993. Weekly TSL at that time was 65 quarter-hours. By 2000, it had fallen below 60; it is now 51 quarter-hours per week.

· While much recent attention has been focused on teens who may not be learning to use radio at all, 18-to-24 TSL has declined by an even larger percentage (24%). TSL in 1993 was 95 quarter-hours per week; it is now 72 quarter-hours. Listening 12-24 is falling significantly faster than among those 25-plus.

· While broadcasters often point to an increase in the raw number of Persons Using Radio to offset any concern about a decline in TSL, that number has finally flattened – counteracted by the significant increase in the number of people who now report no listening to radio at all. In fact, more than 11% of boys 12-17 now report no weekly radio listening at all.

· The decline in 12-24 listening dates back to the early 90s -- a time when few broadcasters were willing to target listeners under 24. While broadcasters showed a renewed interest in younger targeted formats in the mid-to-late 90s, recent years have seen a renewed emphasis on gold-based 25-plus formats and a graying of the programming talent pool.

· Perhaps of most concern, tracking of questions on attitudes about radio among this crucial group trend down as well. Fewer young people expect radio to be an important part of their future lives.

I hope you will join us over the next several days as we explore the current state of radio among today’s vital 12-24s, and offer suggestions to the industry for strategies to court this group. If you are at the NAB this week, be sure and stop Larry, Sean or myself for more--and (even if you aren't going!) be sure to check back here tomorrow as we reveal more insights from this dramatic new study.